Academic CentreZiņa
Dāniels Jukna is a 1st year student of the doctoral study program “Economics and Business” of the Faculty of Business, Management and Economics of the University of Latvia and a recipient of the Timermanis Scholarship for Competitiveness Research in Social Sciences in the field of social sciences. The researcher's doctoral dissertation is being developed at the Faculty of Business, Management and Economics of the University of Latvia supervised by doc., Dr. ekon. Oļegs Krasnopjorovs.
Dissertation of the the scholarship recipient is dedicated to revealing the main factors in assessing the solvency of borrowers before and during the Covid-19 crisis. The aim of the dissertation is to assess the factors determining the solvency of non-bank borrowers before and during the Covid-19 crisis, providing recommendations for the improvement of Latvian legislation and guidelines for non-bank creditors. The expected results of the dissertation could provide new proposals and solutions for a more accurate assessment of borrowers' solvency for non-bank lending companies in Latvia, thus ensuring a higher probability that market interest rates on loans will be reduced, approaching the EU average.
The first part of the study is devoted to the analysis of the scientific literature to find out what methods are used to develop borrowers’ solvency assessment models and what borrowers' solvency models have been developed in the research. The strengths, weaknesses and shortcomings of these models will be analysed, as well as the use of different methods for developing solvency assessment models for non-bank borrowers. This section will also assess what indicators of predictability, discrimination and stability are used to compare different models and to choose the best one.
In the period since the beginning of the scholarship, a systematic analysis of the scientific literature has been carried out, on the basis of which a new evaluation of credit assessment methods is proposed, based on four basic principles - quality, statistical independence, interpretability and efficiency. The second study focuses on the development of the most popular method models, as well as the development of a hybrid model, which would reduce the risk of non-bank credit default by about 35% compared to the absence of such a model.
In addition, both studies have been submitted for review at the 14th International Conference "New Challenges in Economic and Business Development - 2022: Responsible Growth", which will take place from 12 to 14 May.
The scholarship recipient has also managed to take part as a lecturer of the master's study subject “Mathematical modeling methods in economic studies” leading a lecture course for 2nd year students of the master's program "Economics" on borrower solvency assessment, econometric methods and practical application of such models in credit companies. Lectures have been conducted in cooperation with doc. Dr. ekon. Oļegs Krasnopjorovs.
Dāniels would also like to attend the Spring Doctoral School of “Quantitative Finance and Financial Econometrics”, which will take place from 16 to 17 June in Marseille, to improve his knowledge of large-scale network modeling, microdata econometrics and the latest methods in quantitative finance. This scholarship would give a unique opportunity for the scholarship recipient to attend this spring school, thus improving his knowledge, gaining valuable experience to better participate in various planned international conferences and write competitive research on his topic.
Development of a competitive study on the factors influencing the Covid-19 crisis on the solvency of borrowers will be started in cooperation with the supervisor of the dissertation Oļegs Krasnopjorovs in the nearest future. Within the framework of this study, it is planned to use real data on borrowers obtained from the State Revenue Service and credit information offices.
"The scholarship is both a motivation to work towards discovering new opportunities in science, expanding borders of my knowledge and my capabilities, as well as a personal award for the travelled path and acquired achievements" says the scholarship recipient.
Daniel wishes for the LU Foundation to stay on their path and to promote the improvement of the knowledge and experience of young scientists and professionals by providing significant financial support.
